NDP Platform breakdown

Party: New Democratic Party (NDP)

Platform title: “A Plan that Matters… ” Or: The 2014 Liberal budget

Candidate: Nik Spohr

Highlights: If elected, an NDP Government will

• Take HST off Hydro to make it more affordable
• Freeze Tuition for post-secondary students
• Cut E.R. Wait times in half by opening more 24 hour clinics, and allow more Nurse Practitioners to work in Emergency Rooms
• Reduce insurance by 15%
• Give businesses that create jobs a job creation tax credit
• Build 60km of new highway every year

What I like:

• The increased use of Nurse Practitioners in the E.R.
• The Caregiver tax credit
• A delay in implementing the Liberals’ Pension Plan.  With a likely shift to Justin Trudeau and the Liberals federally this makes sense.

Questions:

1. A huge portion of this plan is only spelled out for the first two years of the mandate.  What’s going to happen in years 3, and 4?

2. Doesn’t creating two additional ministries run counter to saving money?

3. How does building 60km of additional roadway/ year lead to better transit for cities?

4. How can you tell if auto insurance rates are actually declining, or insurance companies inflated them to make it look that way?

Horwath wins if…

The only way I see an NDP government happening is if the Liberals win a minority mandate and Kathleen Wynne is forced to resign as party leader.  Even then, it’ll be heavily influenced by the P.C’s.  This platform is low on ideas, and vision.  I’m used to an NDP that makes me say “great idea, now how do we afford it?” And passing the bulk of Liberals’ budget doesn’t cut it with me.  As a matter of fact it leads to the question of why she even voted against it in the first place.  It would take an incredible collapse on Tim Hudak’s part for her to win.

Horwath loses if…

The Green Party gets it together and takes a few seats.  It could happen because I don’t think this platform is enough for the left flank of the party to support it.

To learn more about the NDP’s platform visit their website.  To learn more  about their candidate Nik Spohr visit his website. 

A Summer Election: Yeah… that’ll end well

Although that budget wasn’t great, it’s not worth fighting an election over.  But apparently two of the party leaders (McGuinty, and Horwath) disagree.  The Premier has even threatened to go the Lieutenant Governor early next week and dissolve the Legislature with an election day sometime in mid July.  It’s completely crazy and an extremely risky gamble.  It won’t end well for anyone.

The N.D.P. made a deal, and it seems are now trying to wiggle out of it.  In the event of an election Andrea Horwath would be painted as the fall guy for it, and as a liar.  She made a deal with McGuinty in good faith, and she should stick to it.   Now she’s trying to bend over backwards trying to have her cake and eat it too; agree with the Liberals, and yet not agree.   In all fairness some of her M.P.P.’s did abstain from voting, an indication they weren’t happy.   Still  I wonder what’s changed? Did organized labour pressure her to change her mind?

I repeat, this is a huge gamble for McGuinty.  All the scandals, the credit downgrade, and his sort of half response to the Drummond Report are coming home to roost.    Add those things to the fact it is Summer, and you’ve got a recipe I think for an even smaller minority or an election loss.   Of course in an odd way that could be what he’s looking for as I keep hearing his name connected with the Liberal leadership federally, and a loss would give him an out to do that.  A resignation would be easier; if he were to resign now, have his party name a new leader, and go from there.  The Liberals could put a fresh face on the party, hopefully come up with some ideas and distance themselves from Ornge. But if he were to announce his resignation, it would make him a lame duck Premier so an election now would save face.

Tim Hudak stands to be a big winner in the event of an election. He’s been against the budget since the beginning; and it’s no surprise that he, and the P.C.’s are stalling it.  If he’s quiet, and stays on message, he may in fact win in a kind of default.  His party does have a point that the budget didn’t do enough for job creation. That will be one thing people look for, if they’re paying attention.  It’s a smart move for him to sit back and let McGuinty and Horwath do all the fighting.

I don’t  know what they’re all thinking in playing these games.  But I do know an election now won’t end well for anyone.

Oh Ontario how you frustrate me

 The title is born mostly of frustration.  I’ve been on the job market since late November… and let’s say I’ve had enough bites to know that it’s more likely because of job market conditions than any lack of qualifications on my part.   The fact is a lot of employers simply for whatever reason aren’t hiring.

And I think it’s about to get worse.  On Wednesday the announcement came down that Standard& Poors was downgrading our economic outlook, and Thursday Moody’s decided to downgrade Ontario’s credit.  It likely has something to do with the budget deal struck Monday, and then the budget voted on, Tuesday.

It probably is really  no more than a verdict on the provincial budget.  Specifically on the fact there is a new tax being applied when conventional wisdom shows us that business tax cuts are a better way to stimulate growth in private business.  And who runs private business? Usually people making over $500 thousand… aka those being asked to fork it over by the N.D.P.

It’s a wake-up call to Dalton McGuinty that he’s got to stick to his guns on the Public Sector wage freeze, and the other cost-cutting measures contained within the budget.  This may even shock him into re-thinking some of his response to the Drummond Report, and really going at it to cut spending.  At least these are the things I keep trying to tell myself.

I look at these moves as a job hunter and wonder if I’m banging my head against a brick wall trying to find a job here.  I wonder who will invest in a province that’s got this enormous debt, and where the Premier is so beholden to his opposition he introduces a new tax just to keep power? Who will invest in a province where a government is constantly on the verge of collapse and the Premier let’s face it, isn’t exactly the most trustworthy as it comes to public money these days? Who will invest in a province  where taxes are probably going to keep going up?  Nobody, that’s who.  Not a single investor will, and I can’t say that I blame them.

And the worst part of is Dalton McGuinty is probably the best of the bunch.  In her deal with the Liberals N.D.P. leader Andrea Horwath showed a penchant for taxing, and spending usually associated with the party.  In doing some reading on their website the P.C.’s have some ideas, but they’re vague at best;the minute they become policy ideas is the minute they become a serious threat to McGuinty.

So when did that happen? When did a leader who has regularly broken promises, whose government has been in recent years plagued by scandals involving out tax dollars become the best we can do? Probably after the last provincial election when even after nearly a year of campaigning voters still didn’t know Tim Hudak that well or trust him.

Dalton McGuinty made the mess.  Now’s the time to clean it up… if he doesn’t then voters should do it for him by electing someone else next time out.  At least I hope that’s what will happen.  If it doesn’t  I’ll move to Saskatchewan.

The Deal, and the Politics

The deal reached Monday that averted an election doesn’t bother me.  It forced the people making over $500 thousand to pay an extra 2% on their taxes.  It seems a pittance to me to avoid a provincial election worth over $100 million that probably wouldn’t have accomplished much anyway.  McGuinty is saying right now the tax will only stay until the deficit is paid off.  I’ve heard it said it is nearly impossible to repeal a tax measure once implemented.

What’s more interesting here is the politics. Dalton McGuinty made a catchphrase out of “I will not raise taxes a penny more,” and now here he is having to break a promise… again.   The polls show it’s a move the rest of us fully support; but it is still is a broken promise.  And it’s one that has to anger his party’s supporters on Bay Street who will be effected by this, and that will end up costing him votes.  When you put it together with the rest of the budget- the semi-voluntary public sector wage freeze, and asking seniors to pay more for their drugs based on the income; this could be end up being a politically expensive budget for him. 

The N.D.P. and Andrea Horwath come off as a political winner here.  She got what she wanted; the tax hike, and more money for social programs and health care.  She comes off as a strong leader in the eyes of her supporters, and maybe wins a few more a votes given that she saved the government from defeat.  But it’s a pretty hollow victory. It’s a dangerous game she plays; agreeing to a deal one day, and abstaining from a vote  on the budget the next. It begs the question why make the deal if you don’t plan to vote for it?  It’s almost as if the N.D.P. wants to have its cake and eat it too- it wants to push through its priorities but it’s almost like it’s reserving the right to vote against it at a later date.   It raises some integrity questions about the N.D.P.

Tim Hudak comes off as being the big loser in all of this.  I give him points for consistency- he said his party would vote against it, and so they did.  He’s also isolated himself now, sitting firmly on the outside looking in, as Andrea Horwath takes the lead in a role that should really be his as leader of the opposition. I find lately Hudak’s been going for the easy line too much, instead of the good policy idea; it makes it seem as if he hasn’t found the balance between providing a government-in-waiting, and a voice for the opposition.   

The deal has been struck ensuring the McGuinty government’s survival.  However the games have just begun. 

Stories to Watch: April 23- 30

What stories am I watching this week? Here’s the answer:

1. The Budget Dance: Will Andrea Horwath support Dalton McGuinty’s budget? Will there be a bargain struck today that will ensure the government survives to fight another few months? Or will we be heading to the polls? So many questions, so few answers.  We find out the final answer tomorrow.  An interesting side-note to this story NewsTalk1010 is running a poll on their website asking listeners if they want the two of them to reach an agreement, or have an election.  The results are surprising, at last check:  73.1% of people who answered the question want an election.

2. Ornge Inquiry: The all-parties public accounts committee at Queen’s Park is conducting an inquiry into the misspending at the Ornge Air Ambulance Service.  Last week we learned that one of McGuinty’s political advisers knew what was going on, but did nothing.  The committee also revealed plans to ask for a rarely used Speaker’s warrant to be issued for former Ornge CEO Chris Mazza to appear in early May.  The only problem: Nobody knows where Mazza is.

3. Alberta Election:  Albertans could make history today by changing the Progressive Conservatives and Alison Redford for Danielle Smith and the Wild Rose Alliance.  The P.C.’s have reigned supreme for the last 41 years, and some opinion polls indicate if they were to win, it would be a minority.  If the Wild Rose Alliance wins it could set up an interesting dynamic within Canada, as the party takes a fairly confrontational attitude towards the province of Quebec.

4. Quebec Student Protests:  Speaking of Quebec, the province’s students continue their fight against possible tuition hikes. On Friday groups of protesters attacked the Montreal Convention Centre as Premier Jean Charest addressed the city’s business community.  There is a slight possibility Charest could call a provincial election.

5. Local Politics: Milton Town Council meets tonight (April 23, 2012).  Some items on the agenda include; the Velodrome,  a proposal to expand the Gymnastics facility at the Milton Sports Centre, and a notice of motion regarding the continued development of the Horse Industry from Ward 3 Councilor Cindy Lunau.  For a full agenda click here.  The link will take to the PDF format- you need an Adobe reader to view the agenda.

Ontario Budget 2012 verdict

Finance Minister Dwight Duncan presented a so-so budget yesterday.  It had its good points- the expansion at Milton District Hospital escaped the knife, and there are signs the Liberals really mean to clamp down on public sector unions.  It gave a slight nod to both the Progressive Conservatives (P.C.)’s by asking seniors making over $100 thousand to pay for some drugs, and  the N.D.P. by freezing hospital C.E.O. and M.P.P. salaries. It attempted to strike a happy medium by keeping the Green Energy rebate, but capping it at 3000 kWh.

Lots in there for the education system. The Liberals have moved to cut the so-called “lap year,” where students take an extra semester or two to boost marks.  They’re continuing to implement their centre piece all-day Kindergarten program, and will offer 30% tuition grants for post-secondary students.  And contrary to what the opposition says there is a Jobs& Prosperity fund; expected to save according to their numbers $250 million.  How that will affect job creation remains to be seen.

The bad points have to start with getting tough with the public sector unions. The ultimatum that the Liberal government could legislate a wage freeze, coupled with noises about public sector pensions will anger unions.  O.P.S.E.U and the teaching unions are all in various stages of contract negotiations and I can’t see them willing to just take the freeze without a fight.  And I’m betting it could be a messy fight as well.  I have to give the Liberals points on this though to be willing to break with the union support.  But I have to ask, is it too little, too late? The ship labelled “public sector wage freeze” set sail the moment they began selectively giving raises.

Did it do enough to create jobs? Honestly no.  The province isn’t expected to see the savings from the Job & Prosperity fund until 2014-2015.  Meanwhile there is still unemployment; cancelling corporate tax cuts while glamorous, and something that will win points with the N.D.P. won’t create jobs. It needs to be easier for businesses to hire; people need to be working it increases the tax base.

In my opinion this budget isn’t worth fighting an election over. While the budget is lacking in parts, it isn’t worth wasting 35 days, and $100 million over.  However when you take the so-so budget, and combine it with the Ornge scandal, and public sector union back lash against the budget we may find ourselves voting sometime in early May.

The N.D. P. Platform critique

The N.D.P. have always had great ideas.  But when you ask how much it would cost… that’s when it falls apart. This platform is no exception. They have the most realistic approach to the HST; they’d scrap it on home heating oils, and gas for cars- two places where it would save people the most.  But the revenue has to be replaced somewhere.

Setting weekly gas prices is in theory a good idea.  Nobody else has even tried to solve this problem, and it seems the instant there’s an increase on the markets, within hours there’s an increase at our local gas stations.  There has to be something we can do.  But the question I have here is: how do you manage the market increases?

Becoming equal partners in transit development with municipalities is a good idea as well.  It is pretty much our collective faults for not developing our transit as we built our roads- this kind of spreads the burden of solving the problem.  Where the weakness with their transit plan is in the freeze on fares for four years.  Again- a good idea; who doesn’t want to pay less for something? The problem is what happens when/ if you take the freeze off? After four years the increase could be a huge deciding factor in whether some people continue to use transit.  A better idea might be to somehow tie the increase to the rate of inflation maybe.

The education plank is fairly non-existent.  The N.D.P. is looking at tuition freezes, and forgiving the interest on student loans.  Both good ideas, but it fails to address the system as a whole.  The P.C.’s and Liberals both have grand plans of funding 60 thousand post-secondary spots.

Buying Ontario may be a great soundbite but in practical terms won’t work.  The provinces are too interdependent on each other.  And Ontario is still a powerful part of the overall Canadian economy- Ontarians start buying exclusively Ontario, and the rest of Canada might fail.

Scrapping the LHIN’s (Local Health Integrated Network), is something the N.D.P. and their P.C. counterparts agree on.  The money saved here (I think around $200 million) would probably offset some of the fees on medical exams, and ambulance fees they plan on getting rid of.

These are some decent ideas there, but is it enough to form a government on? It might be.  The N.D.P. have so far been fairly clear on what they will do if elected, and the clarity might be enough to break through the clatter of the other two fighting it out on the negative end of things.