Predictions

When I’ve looked at this election it’s been as a whole picture;  What do I see? What do the polls say? Who’s saying what? and who isn’t saying anything because silence speaks too.  What I’ve seen is a generally more vicious campaign than in 2011 where for the last week the two front-runners have been going at each other with a different line everyday.  Liberals have been cajoling, and nearly begging for votes with Kathleen Wynne sounding desperate at times.  They’re standing to be judged on their budget, but they’ve been silent on a few things too.  They’ve refused to talk about where they would cut jobs, the MaRS scandal, and rumours Mady Vanstone might not get her life-saving drug paid for.

The Progressive Conservatives (PC’s) are being judged on Tim Hudak’s promises to create 1 million jobs, and cut 100 thousand jobs out of the public service.  Questions have been raised over the policy’s math, but have been ignored. Hudak has instead deflected them onto Wynne with limited success.  He had a strong performance in the debate last week but so far has failed to properly capitalize on it.  Ads from the Ontario Provincial Police Association, and other unions are having their effect on his campaign introducing an element of fear. Nobody is talking about the fact O.P.S.E.U (Ontario Public Service Employees Union) Leader Warren “Smokey” Thomas has come out in an interview with Sun News Network endorsing Tim Hudak, or that Thomas has accused Wynne of lying.  Numbering over 90 thousand, O.P.S.E.U is likely where the bulk of Tim Hudak’s cuts will come from over the next few years

The New Democratic Party (NDP) have become the quietest of the three parties.  Andrea Horwath made a tactical decision to move her party towards the centre and run on what amounts to the Liberal budget with a tweak; it’s cost her some support from her party’s left, let them be judged on that.  Combine that with a quieter, more deliberate approach and she has a solid chance.  The one thing I take from the polls is there is definitely a mood for change around the province; people are tired of the status quo.  It’s totally up in the air what form the change will take.

The Liberals are done in this province, they’ll move to third place. Two outcomes are possible: A P.C or N.D.P. minority government.  Trust is a huge issue; both Tim Hudak and Andrea Horwath are untested as Premier.  A minority mandate will give voters the chance to know them better.

 

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3 Comments

Filed under provincial election, provincial politics, Uncategorized

3 responses to “Predictions

  1. Writer

    It really doesn’t seem like covering politics is your thing. Your predicitions were, to be honest, more like personal opinions and hopes, rather than unbiased, fact-based reporting. The first rule of J-School is to remove yourself from the writing. That said, if you didn’t intend any of the posts to be anything other than personal editorial, so be it.

    • cdnjournalist

      I don’t think I’ve ever pretended this was anything other than a blog meant for opinions. My predictions were based on personal observations of the campaign, and I admit that. But Aren’t all predictions “personal opinions” at their core?

      Mine were wrong. Half the pollsters in the province, and a bunch of columnists somewhere are admitting today as well they were wrong too.

      I think it’s a tiny bit unfair to judge me based on this one entry.

      • Writer

        My judgement is based on a few postings, not just one. Predictions, if not personal opinions, are traditionally based on random polling, stats, etc. They aren’t personal opinions at their core – if they’re personal opinions, they’re speculation and editorials at best. These days there are so many polls, they seem to count for less and less, as coming into the election everyone was calling it as a dead heat between all three main parties.

        Also, my advice is that if you think any judgement is unfair, you’d better get a thicker skin, or find a different career path. There are always going to be critics of your work as a writer, no matter what type of writing you do. If you don’t like it, best to find something else to do, as people will always comment positive and negative on it.

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