A Summer Election: Yeah… that’ll end well

Although that budget wasn’t great, it’s not worth fighting an election over.  But apparently two of the party leaders (McGuinty, and Horwath) disagree.  The Premier has even threatened to go the Lieutenant Governor early next week and dissolve the Legislature with an election day sometime in mid July.  It’s completely crazy and an extremely risky gamble.  It won’t end well for anyone.

The N.D.P. made a deal, and it seems are now trying to wiggle out of it.  In the event of an election Andrea Horwath would be painted as the fall guy for it, and as a liar.  She made a deal with McGuinty in good faith, and she should stick to it.   Now she’s trying to bend over backwards trying to have her cake and eat it too; agree with the Liberals, and yet not agree.   In all fairness some of her M.P.P.’s did abstain from voting, an indication they weren’t happy.   Still  I wonder what’s changed? Did organized labour pressure her to change her mind?

I repeat, this is a huge gamble for McGuinty.  All the scandals, the credit downgrade, and his sort of half response to the Drummond Report are coming home to roost.    Add those things to the fact it is Summer, and you’ve got a recipe I think for an even smaller minority or an election loss.   Of course in an odd way that could be what he’s looking for as I keep hearing his name connected with the Liberal leadership federally, and a loss would give him an out to do that.  A resignation would be easier; if he were to resign now, have his party name a new leader, and go from there.  The Liberals could put a fresh face on the party, hopefully come up with some ideas and distance themselves from Ornge. But if he were to announce his resignation, it would make him a lame duck Premier so an election now would save face.

Tim Hudak stands to be a big winner in the event of an election. He’s been against the budget since the beginning; and it’s no surprise that he, and the P.C.’s are stalling it.  If he’s quiet, and stays on message, he may in fact win in a kind of default.  His party does have a point that the budget didn’t do enough for job creation. That will be one thing people look for, if they’re paying attention.  It’s a smart move for him to sit back and let McGuinty and Horwath do all the fighting.

I don’t  know what they’re all thinking in playing these games.  But I do know an election now won’t end well for anyone.

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Filed under ontario n.d.p, Ontario provincial election speculation, provincial budget 2012, provincial politics

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